“It's hard to plan when decisions are made overnight, with the stroke of a pen”

“It's hard to plan when decisions are made overnight, with the stroke of a pen”

Two more serious shocks hit society recently: at least 400-450 thousand people were upset by the news of KATA’s bleeding – of course the real number could be much more – the campaign promises of overhead reduction however, its disruptive overthrow will hurt a large part of the country. At the moment, only one thing is certain: the uncertainty, from which everyone is trying to extract something.

We would have liked to see more clearly in relation to the above questions – especially the concerns about energy management -, therefore We turned to Dóra Fazekas, head of the Budapest office of the economic research firm Cambridge Econometrics, for guidance.

Dóra Fazekas would need much more thoughtful decisions to recover from the energy crisis (Photo: Cambridge Econometrics)

“As an economist, I agree that the overhead reduction in its current form had to be abolished, because it does not take into account social inequalities and maintains outdated technologies alive. However, it is crucial how this is implemented”

– emphasized Dóra Fazekas. “For the time being, there is still a lot of uncertainty

– even though it has already become clear since the interview was made,

how much do you have to pay for electricity and gas – the editor –

here it will be the key is how they will be calculated exactly in the various cases.”

What is the market price?

The specialist also drew attention to the fact that the government’s communication often mentions electricity and gas relevant “market price” is an uninterpretable term in this form.

There is no specific market price for electricity and gas , as these are constantly moving exchange rates on the stock exchange, where a lot depends on where, from whom, and from what source they are obtained

A szakértő szerint az áram és a gáz esetén nem lehet konkrét piaci árról beszélni (Fotó: europa.eu)

– explained Dóra Fazekas.

According to the expert, in the case of electricity and gas, conc to talk about the market price (Photo: europa.eu)

“Much more thorough consideration and consideration of many aspects is necessary in the current energy crisis, especially in the case of ending a system that favors polluting technologies. The reflection of market processes is also desirable in the prices, since more modern and less polluting technologies become cheaper the more widely they spread – however, this has been hindered by the reduction in overhead costs so far. The gradual elimination of this would have surprised consumers less and could have led to a smaller increase in costs. I mean, for example, whether it is possible to calculate what the average consumption means, who can or should be given a discount, whether it is good to use the average, or whether there is another mathematical calculation (median or mode) that would be fairer. Of course, a big question is how accessible are the data needed for the calculations”

– he added.

According to the expert, if the overhead reduction was implemented sooner would have been, then the large amount of money spent on residential price subsidies and MVM losses was diverted to energy efficiency, and today it received a much smaller shock society because people would have started making energy efficiency investments and upgrades.

“Now everyone is talking about whether to buy solar panel for your house. This is good, but this could have been done three years ago with a more thoughtful use of the money spent on utility reduction” – pointed out Dóra Fazekas. “It is also an important aspect that no new wind power plants have been built in Hungary since 2016, and it is not known how they took into account in the calculation that if the capacity of the Paks nuclear power plant was used better, we would not need as much gas.”

There is currently no predictable, stable environment in Hungary

According to the expert who heads the Budapest office of Cambridge Econometrics, the security of supply is currently the most important issue, but this could also be approached in a way that simultaneously serves the issue of energy efficiency and climate protection.

Fazekas Dóra sokkal átgondoltabb döntésekre lenne szükség az energiaválságból való kilábaláshoz (Fotó: Cambridge Econometrics)

The domestic market situation cannot be predicted from the point of view of investments involving more efficient energy use (Photo: Unsplash/Mykola Ma khlai)

“Other countries are also thinking about official prices, or on the introduction of a price ceiling” – pointed out Dóra Fazekas. “This is not something from the devil, but the way it is implemented, the consideration of social inequalities matters a lot.

Hungary does not have a predictable, stable environment in which the investments necessary for the energy transition could be implemented. start, the higher costs and unavoidable damages we have to reckon with.

If someone now wants a solar panel and takes out a loan for it, can you be sure what will happen? Not really. And it’s hard to plan when decisions are made overnight, with the stroke of a pen.”

Will there be a fifty thousand electricity bill then?

Earlier, after the announcement overriding the overhead reduction, we ourselves tried to find our way around the issue: the the question of a fifty thousand electricity bill then belongs to an energy company we tried to dissect it with the involvement of a doctor. However, we were also curious about what a professional who is really comfortable in the economic field has to say.

Fazekas Dóra sokkal átgondoltabb döntésekre lenne szükség az energiaválságból való kilábaláshoz (Fotó: Cambridge Econometrics)

No new wind farm has been built in Hungary since 2016 (Photo: Unsplash/Thomas Reaubourg)

“However, it is difficult to answer this question – even in the light of the amounts announced since then – because it is not clear how they plan to calculate, what they will be compared to ” – emphasized Dóra Fazekas. “What about seasonal fluctuations? The key will be the proper arrangement of these issues, if they are not thought through, then anything is possible. Even that we will return to a system where we will heat with wood and coal”.

According to the specialist, the consumer attitude must definitely change so that we don’t heat the apartment to 24 degrees in winter and don’t sit in sweaters at 18 degrees in summer in a cooled room.

Climate protection and energy efficiency, unfortunately, do not seem to be strong enough buzzwords, while , if we flashed an opportunity with which concrete savings can be made, it could have a positive effect, at least I trust that

said Fazekas. It may happen that this will also affect remote work, because there will be people who prefer to go to their workplace so that you don’t have to be at home en consume”

– he added.

Again the
we return to energy efficiency, according to Dóra Fazekas, “the best solution is to not use the given energy at all, and to use it more efficiently. That is why insulation is important, for example, to heat only the room, not the street. Unfortunately, it is sad that the renewal rate of residential properties in Hungary today is less than 1 percent on an annual basis”.

Where is the way out of the energy crisis?

According to the specialist, it is not a good idea to wait until the uncertainties of the world economy subside – instead, long-term thinking is needed.

“It is not a good idea to wait for the waves to calm down now, because more and more waves may form in the near future, because we did not throw a pebble into the sea, but a lot, and it is impossible to be independent from these: climate crisis, energy crisis, food crisis, and we haven’t even mentioned water yet. We should think about how the trilemma of security of supply, climate protection and affordable consumption can be realized, while people can heat and utility prices reflect reality.

Dusk for overhead reduction (Photo: Unsplash/Matthew Henry)

Same point a The problem is that ever since there has been a reduction in utilities, people have leaned back, no one thought through that they would support and compensate MVM’s loss from our taxes, especially recently, when prices rose, but the official price was still in effect. Instead, we should think about how to support the population so that they can spend on renewable energy and heating modernization. 100 percent subsidies don’t work, this has already been shown by several evaluations: if the consumer is not interested, he will not implement these projects as well as those who are interested.”

According to Dóra Fazekas, the only thin positive is that long-term thinking will finally be forced, so politicians and decision-makers will perhaps start thinking ahead.

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